Latest News

Oil rates increase as funds scale back bearish positions: Kemp

Investors have become less bearish about the outlook for oil and gas costs as U.S. shale manufacturers scale back drilling while Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+. allies extend their own output cuts for an additional three months.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors acquired the. equivalent of 10 million barrels in the six crucial. petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days. ending Feb. 27.

Fund supervisors have acquired petroleum in eight of the most. current 11 weeks, purchasing a total of 325 million barrels given that. Dec. 12, according to records filed with regulators.

As a result, the combined position had been raised to 532. million barrels (41st percentile for all weeks because 2013), up. from 207 million barrels (1st percentile) on Dec. 12.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

The most considerable transformation has been in NYMEX and. ICE WTI, where the position had been lifted to 144 million. barrels (14th percentile), up from a record low of 31 million.

Short positions in NYMEX WTI anticipating an additional decline. in prices have actually been slashed by more than two-thirds to 40. million barrels from 128 million.

Relentless short-covering has actually assisted raise front-month WTI. rates by more than $10 per barrel (15%) since mid-December.

Some of the space, where fund supervisors were relatively. sanguine about the outlook for Brent but very bearish. towards WTI, has actually now closed.

Funds are still fairly bearish on WTI; neutral about Brent. and European gas oil; and bullish towards U.S. diesel and. gasoline.

Financiers prepare for shale production growth will slow,. while Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies will continue to. restrict their own output to diminish crude inventories and drive. costs higher.

On the fuel side, consumption is anticipated to increase as the. major economies recover from a mid-cycle downturn in 2022/23,. however with the strongest recovery in the U.S., where fuel. inventories are currently well below par.

U.S. GAS

A few of the severe bearishness towards U.S. gas prices has. begun to dissipate after major manufacturers announced cuts to. drilling programmes in action to rates at a multi-decade lows. in real terms.

Hedge funds and other cash supervisors purchased the. equivalent of 508 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the 2 major. futures and choices contracts linked to rates at Henry Center in. Louisiana in the seven days to Feb. 27.

The purchases reversed a few of the 2,085 bcf sold over the. previous 5 weeks, according to records released by the U.S. Product Futures Trading Commission.

All the buying came in the kind of repurchasing previous. brief positions (+542 bcf) after enormous short selling in the. previous 5 weeks (-2,369 bcf).

In effect, funds increased their position to a net. short of 1,167 bcf (6th percentile for all weeks because 2010). from a net short of 1,675 bcf (2nd percentile) the prior week.

Bearish short positions still surpassed bullish long. positions by 1.38:1, however the ratio had actually fallen from 1.55:1 the. previous week.

U.S. gas inventories were 461 bcf (+24% or +1.25 standard. variances) above the previous ten-year seasonal average on Feb. 23, up from a surplus of simply 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 standard. discrepancies) at the start of winter season.

With costs at the most affordable level in genuine terms for more. than 3 decades, and a substantial concentration of brief positions. that have to be repurchased, the balance of dangers lies strongly to. the upside.

Production and drilling cuts revealed by a number of significant. manufacturers served as the catalyst for a bout of brief covering. that has begun to lever rates up from the mid-February low.

Associated columns:

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- U.S. gas glut gets hedge funds ultra bearish (February 26,. 2024). - Slumping U.S. gas prices trigger hedge funds to anguish. ( February 19, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.