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Oil funds were bullish even before Iran launched missiles: Kemp

Financiers were becoming progressively more bullish towards crude oil and refined petroleum items even before Iran launched an extraordinary wave of missiles and drones towards Israel.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the equivalent of 32 million barrels in the 6 crucial petroleum futures and choices agreements over the 7 days to April 9.

Positions were reported to the U.S. Product Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe days before the Iranian attack on April 13-14.

Fund managers had been net buyers in 11 of the last 17 weeks, purchasing a total of 478 million barrels because Dec. 12.

In consequence, the combined position had increased to 685 million barrels (66th percentile for all weeks considering that 2013) up from 207 million (1st percentile).

The most current week saw purchasing throughout the board in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+11 million barrels), Brent (+4 million), U.S. gasoline (+1 million), U.S. diesel (+3 million) and European gas oil (+13 million).

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Financiers remained extremely bullish towards U.S. fuel with a net position of 85 million barrels (88th. percentile).

Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a. ratio of 4.90:1 (57th percentile) indicating placing had not. yet become extended.

The danger of escalating dispute in the Middle East. interfering with crude and diesel supplies to Europe has actually resulted in a big. buildup of positions in Brent and European gas oil.

Fund supervisors had actually accumulated a net position of 304 million. barrels (70th percentile) in Brent and 69 million barrels (75th. percentile) in gas oil.

Overall, fund positions had become moderately bullish, but. not uneven, limiting the danger of a sharp reversal in costs. for the time being.

US NATURAL GAS

Portfolio financiers made couple of modifications to their positions in. U.S. gas futures and options for the 5th week in a. row; net purchases amounted to simply 22 billion cubic feet (bcf).

The combined position in the two essential agreements. connected to prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana was equivalent to a. net short of 310 bcf (24th percentile for all weeks given that 2010).

The combined position had not changed substantially from a. net except 562 bcf (17th percentile) on March 12 in spite of the. announcement of drilling and production cuts by a variety of. significant shale gas manufacturers.

Production cuts will require time to erode inventories and in. the meantime temperature levels have actually remained mild, keeping gas. usage low.

Working gas stocks were still in a massive surplus of. 634 bcf (+38% or +1.36 basic variances) above the previous. 10-year seasonal average on April 5.

The surplus has actually swelled from 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 requirement. discrepancies) on Oct. 1 after the hottest winter on record across. the northern hemisphere.

With so much gas still in storage and restricted capacity for. refilling over the summer season, costs stay near the most affordable. level in real terms because the early 1970s to motivate maximise. usage by power manufacturers and commercial users.

Associated columns:

- Investors bet on additional increase in U.S. gasoline costs. ( April 10, 2024)

- Oil funds turn bullish as Mideast conflict magnifies. ( April 8, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.