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Oil costs increase as funds scale back bearish positions: Kemp

Investors have ended up being less bearish about the outlook for oil and gas rates as U.S. shale manufacturers downsize drilling while Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+. allies extend their own output cuts for a further 3 months.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the. equivalent of 10 million barrels in the six crucial. petroleum futures and alternatives agreements over the 7 days. ending Feb. 27.

Fund managers have bought petroleum in 8 of the most. current 11 weeks, purchasing an overall of 325 million barrels since. Dec. 12, according to records submitted with regulators.

As a result, the combined position had actually been raised to 532. million barrels (41st percentile for all weeks given that 2013), up. from 207 million barrels (first percentile) on Dec. 12.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

The most substantial transformation has actually been in NYMEX and. ICE WTI, where the position had been lifted to 144 million. barrels (14th percentile), up from a record low of 31 million.

Brief positions in NYMEX WTI preparing for an additional decrease. in prices have been slashed by more than two-thirds to 40. million barrels from 128 million.

Relentless short-covering has actually assisted lift front-month WTI. costs by more than $10 per barrel (15%) given that mid-December.

Some of the gap, where fund managers were reasonably. sanguine about the outlook for Brent however very bearish. towards WTI, has actually now closed.

Funds are still fairly bearish on WTI; neutral about Brent. and European gas oil; and bullish towards U.S. diesel and. fuel.

Financiers anticipate shale production growth will slow,. while Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies will continue to. limit their own output to diminish crude stocks and drive. prices higher.

On the fuel side, consumption is anticipated to increase as the. major economies recover from a mid-cycle slowdown in 2022/23,. but with the strongest recovery in the U.S., where fuel. inventories are currently well below average.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Some of the severe bearishness towards U.S. gas rates has. begun to dissipate after major producers announced cuts to. drilling programmes in action to costs at a multi-decade lows. in genuine terms.

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the. equivalent of 508 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major. alternatives and futures contracts linked to prices at Henry Center in. Louisiana in the seven days to Feb. 27.

The purchases reversed some of the 2,085 bcf offered over the. previous five weeks, according to records published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

All the buying came in the form of buying previous. brief positions (+542 bcf) after huge short selling in the. previous five weeks (-2,369 bcf).

In repercussion, funds increased their position to a net. short of 1,167 bcf (6th percentile for all weeks considering that 2010). from a net short of 1,675 bcf (2nd percentile) the prior week.

Bearish short positions still outnumbered bullish long. positions by 1.38:1, however the ratio had actually fallen from 1.55:1 the. previous week.

U.S. gas inventories were 461 bcf (+24% or +1.25 standard. variances) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on Feb. 23, up from a surplus of simply 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 requirement. discrepancies) at the start of winter season.

With prices at the lowest level in real terms for more. than 3 decades, and a huge concentration of short positions. that need to be bought, the balance of threats lies securely to. the benefit.

Production and drilling cuts announced by numerous significant. producers served as the driver for a bout of short covering. that has actually started to lever costs up from the mid-February low.

Associated columns:

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- U.S. gas excess gets hedge funds ultra bearish (February 26,. 2024). - Dropping U.S. gas rates cause hedge funds to misery. ( February 19, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.