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Rising spot LNG prices beginning to bite some Asian buyers: Russell

There are early signs that the rise in the spot cost for liquefied gas (LNG) for shipment to Asia to a threemonth high is starting to crimp need from pricesensitive purchasers such as India.

The area LNG price << LNG-AS > rose to $10.50 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in the week ended April 19, the most considering that Jan. 19, and up 26.5% from the low up until now in 2024 of $ 8.30, reached in early March.

The recent increase in the rate has actually been driven more by supply issues, with the continuous dispute in the Middle East fuelling concerns that deliveries from Qatar, the world's. third-largest LNG exporter, may be interfered with.

Up until now these fears have yet to be understood, but there have. been increased expenses for LNG deliveries as vessels bound for. Europe prevent the Red Sea, where Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi. group has actually introduced rocket strikes against a number of vessels,. although none of these were LNG providers.

With the area rate once again above $10 per mmBtu, it has. reached levels that have in the past led to purchasers such as. India, and even China, the world's top LNG importer, pulling. back on purchases.

This is because at these price levels imported LNG finds it. hard to take on other fuels in domestic markets.

India's LNG imports for April are estimated at 1.90 million. metric lots by commodity analysts Kpler, which is below 2.26. million in March and likewise listed below the 1.98 million from April last. year.

LSEG data pegs India's April LNG arrivals at 1.79 million. tons, a four-month low and down from 2.27 million in March and. 1.88 million in April 2023.

China's imports of the super-chilled fuel are estimated at. 6.14 million tons in April by Kpler, below 6.64 million in. March, however above the 5.31 million in April in 2015.

China's LNG imports in the first quarter of 2024 were. strong, probably as an outcome of the less expensive area prices that. prevailed for much of the purchasing period, however also since of the. recovery of parts of the economy, particularly producing.

The main Purchasing Managers' Index increased to a 13-month. high of 51.6 in March, and has actually now invested the last 5 months in. positive territory above the 50-level that separates expansion. from contraction.

The improving economic background in China may serve to. reinforce need for LNG, however the more powerful cost is likewise likely an. challenge.

Much will depend upon the schedule of options, and. it's interesting to note that China's domestic output of natural. gas has actually likewise been rising strongly, with production in the very first. quarter increasing to 63.19 billion cubic metres, up 5.2% from the. exact same duration in 2023.

JAPAN STEADY

Established economies in Asia that import LNG tend to be less. conscious rising rates as the bulk of imports are protected. under long-term contracts, and LNG imports are largely stable.

Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG buyer, is estimated by. Kpler to have imported of 5.12 million loads in April, down from. 5.96 million in March, however above the 4.98 million in April last. year.

Japan's LNG imports generally follow a seasonal pattern of. rising during the peak winter and summer demand durations, but. trailing off during the shoulder seasons.

South Korea, the world's third-biggest LNG importer, is. anticipated to have arrivals of 4.12 million lots in April, up from. 3.93 million in March and 3.23 million in April last year.

Similar to Japan, South Korea's imports might decrease next. month due to seasonal buying patterns.

The overall picture is that Asia's LNG import volumes are. likely to decline in coming months, as a result of both the. typical seasonal decline in need from developed economies, and. likewise the higher spot costs discouraging purchases from some. establishing nations.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .