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Increasing area LNG costs beginning to bite some Asian purchasers: Russell

There are early indications that the increase in the area price for liquefied gas (LNG) for delivery to Asia to a threemonth high is beginning to crimp demand from pricesensitive buyers such as India.

The spot LNG price << LNG-AS > increased to $10.50 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in the week ended April 19, the most given that Jan. 19, and up 26.5% from the low so far in 2024 of $ 8.30, reached in early March.

The recent boost in the cost has been driven more by supply concerns, with the ongoing dispute in the Middle East fuelling concerns that shipments from Qatar, the world's. third-largest LNG exporter, might be interfered with.

So far these fears have yet to be realised, however there have. been increased expenses for LNG shipments as vessels bound for. Europe avoid the Red Sea, where Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi. group has launched rocket strikes against several vessels,. although none of these were LNG providers.

With the spot cost when again above $10 per mmBtu, it has. reached levels that have in the past resulted in buyers such as. India, and even China, the world's top LNG importer, pulling. back on purchases.

This is because at these cost levels imported LNG discovers it. hard to take on other fuels in domestic markets.

India's LNG imports for April are estimated at 1.90 million. metric tons by product analysts Kpler, which is down from 2.26. million in March and also listed below the 1.98 million from April last. year.

LSEG data pegs India's April LNG arrivals at 1.79 million. loads, a four-month low and down from 2.27 million in March and. 1.88 million in April 2023.

China's imports of the super-chilled fuel are estimated at. 6.14 million heaps in April by Kpler, below 6.64 million in. March, however above the 5.31 million in April in 2015.

China's LNG imports in the first quarter of 2024 were. strong, more than likely as a result of the less expensive spot rates that. dominated for much of the purchasing period, but also because of the. recovery of parts of the economy, especially producing.

The main Buying Supervisors' Index rose to a 13-month. high of 51.6 in March, and has now spent the last 5 months in. favorable territory above the 50-level that separates growth. from contraction.

The enhancing financial background in China might serve to. bolster need for LNG, but the stronger rate is also likely an. obstacle.

Much will depend on the availability of alternatives, and. it's fascinating to keep in mind that China's domestic output of natural. gas has actually likewise been rising strongly, with production in the first. quarter rising to 63.19 billion cubic metres, up 5.2% from the. same duration in 2023.

JAPAN STEADY

Developed economies in Asia that import LNG tend to be less. conscious increasing costs as the bulk of imports are secured. under long-lasting agreements, and LNG imports are largely steady.

Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG purchaser, is estimated by. Kpler to have imported of 5.12 million heaps in April, below. 5.96 million in March, however above the 4.98 million in April last. year.

Japan's LNG imports normally follow a seasonal pattern of. increasing throughout the peak winter and summer demand periods, but. trailing off throughout the shoulder seasons.

South Korea, the world's third-biggest LNG importer, is. expected to have arrivals of 4.12 million lots in April, up from. 3.93 million in March and 3.23 million in April last year.

Similar to Japan, South Korea's imports might decline next. month due to seasonal buying patterns.

The total photo is that Asia's LNG import volumes are. likely to decline in coming months, as an outcome of both the. typical seasonal decrease in need from developed economies, and. also the higher spot costs discouraging buy from some. developing countries.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .