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Hedge funds retreat from oil as war danger fades: Kemp

Financiers sold oil at the fastest rate for more than six months in the middle of indications that Israel and Iran have actually selected not to intensify their dispute, ensuring the rally in crude prices stalled well before reaching $100 per barrel.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors sold the equivalent of 95 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options agreements over the 7 days ending on April 23.

Sales were the fastest given that October 2023 and take the two-week overall to 119 million barrels, according to reports submitted with ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Product Futures Trading Commission.

The combined position was cut to 566 million barrels (49th. percentile for all weeks since 2013) from 685 million (66th. percentile) on April 9, as the war danger premium evaporated.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

The most current week saw heavy selling across the majority of the. complex, however particularly in crude and European gas oil, the. markets with most exposure to conflict in the Middle East.

Funds offered Brent (-39 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI. ( -26 million), European gas oil (-24 million) and U.S. fuel. ( -7 million) however there was no modification in U.S. diesel.

Overall crude positions were cut to 453 million barrels. ( 46th percentile) from 522 million (59th percentile) previously in. the month at the height of the confrontation in between Iran and. Israel.

The ratio of bullish long positions to bearish brief ones. was cut much more strongly to 3.51:1 (33rd percentile) down. from a recent high of 4.97:1 (61st percentile) in late March.

Fund managers concluded there was no threat in the meantime to oil. production facilities around the Persian Gulf or tanker paths. through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies continue to restrict. production but are expected to increase output gradually in the. second half of the year.

Non-OPEC production boosts from the United States,. Canada, Brazil and Guyana are most likely to cover most consumption. growth in 2024.

Worldwide inventories stay near to the long-lasting seasonal. average while Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in the Middle. East have more than 4 million barrels per day of idled. production capability.

U.S. GAS

Fund supervisors are revealing a much broader variety of views about. the outlook for U.S. gas prices in an election year.

Funds still held a net long position of 73 million barrels. ( 79th percentile) on April 23, down just slightly from a recent. high of 85 million (88th percentile) on April 9.

But the number of short positions had more than tripled to. 27 million barrels from a recent low of fewer than 9 million on. March 12.

Long positions outnumbered shorts by a ratio of 3.72:1 (43rd. percentile) below 8.73:1 (76th percentile) six weeks. earlier.

U.S. fuel usage stays resilient, underpinned by. consistent development in work and incomes, while refinery fuel. production deals with an elevated danger from an active hurricane. season.

However Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia's refineries have been. scaled back following pressure from the United States, decreasing. the threat to international gasoline materials.

U.S. gas stocks are just slightly lower than average. for the time of year and the deficit has actually stabilised after. operations resumed at BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana.

A minimum of some hedge funds seem to have concluded prices had. risen too far too quick, and the trade had ended up being crowded,. creating more danger on the drawback.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Funds became less bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas. prices over the week ending on April 23, regardless of a continued. boost in excess seasonal stocks.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the. equivalent of 382 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the 2 significant. futures and options contracts connected to rates at Henry Center in. Louisiana.

Purchasing was the fastest for 8 weeks considering that early March,. shortly after significant gas manufacturers announced cuts in drilling and. output.

The combined position was raised to a net short of simply 102. bcf (29th percentile for all weeks given that 2010) up from 483 bcf. ( 19th percentile) the previous week and 1,675 bcf (second. percentile) 2 months earlier.

Working gas inventories swelled to 2,425 bcf on April 19,. the highest for the time of year given that 2016 and before that. 2012.

Inventories were a huge 679 bcf (+39% or +1.46 standard. deviations) above the previous ten-year seasonal average.

The expense of physical gas in fact delivered to electrical energy. generators has actually fallen to its most affordable level since 1974 in real. terms.

However ultra-low rates are increasingly motivating gas-fired. generators to run as baseload, including throughout the night.

Gas-fired units are displacing even more coal and pressing. generators' gas combustion to seasonal records. Record gas. generation throughout the hot summertime is most likely to narrow the. surplus.

Lowered gas drilling will filter through into slower. production development by the end of the year, while the winter season of. 2024/25 is likely to be colder than the record warm winter season of. 2023/24, with El Nino fading.

From both positioning and fundamental point of views the. balance of price dangers has actually shifted to the upside in current. weeks.

Fund supervisors are responding by trying to end up being more. bullish or at least less bearish, for the fourth time in a year.

Related columns:

- Oil bulls lack conviction about sustainability of greater. costs (April 22, 2024)

- Oil traders sanguine about dangers from Israel-Iran conflict. ( April 18, 2024)

- Financiers bank on additional increase in U.S. fuel rates. ( April 11, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.