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Iran attack on Israel stimulates banks to hike oil cost projections

Iran's weekend attack on Israel has increased geopolitical dangers in the oil market for the near term, prompting some banks to raise their price projections.

Iran fired over 300 drones and rockets at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a believed Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1, a very first direct attack on Israeli territory that has stired fears of a broader Middle East war.

Citi on Monday raised its short-term oil projections to $88. per barrel from $80 on higher threat premium. Citi said. it believes the present market is not currently pricing in a. possible extension of a full-blown dispute in between Iran and. Israel that could push oil to $100 plus per barrel.

Any de-escalation might see costs falling back quite. dramatically to the high $70s or low $80s per barrel variety, Citi. included.

2 senior Israeli ministers have actually indicated that retaliation. against Iran is not imminent and that Israel will not act alone.

Societe Generale stated in a note that geopolitical risk is. likely to become ingrained in unrefined prices for the foreseeable. future.

Socgen raised its Brent forecast to $91 per barrel in the. 2nd quarter and WTI to $87.5, and anticipates Brent to average. $ 86.8 and WTI $83.3 in 2024.

We still see direct U.S./ Iran military action as a tail. danger, its possibility has actually increased from 5% to 15% with crude. rates under such a situation quickly spiking above $140, Socgen. added.

Brent futures for June shipment fell 81. cents, or about 0.9%, to $89.64 a barrel by 1335 GMT while WTI. futures for May shipment were down 69 cents, or about. 0.8%, at $84.97. Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in. anticipation of Iran's retaliatory attack.

Britain, France, Germany and the European Union's foreign. policy chief all joined Washington and United Nations. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in requiring restraint in. the Iran-Israel dispute.

J.P. Morgan said in a note that the outlook for oil seems to. depend upon any Israeli military response to the Iranian attack.

Beyond the short-term spike caused by geopolitics, our. base case for oil remains a $90 Brent through May, J.P. Morgan. said.

Kpler expert Viktor Katona said: If we have an unpredicted. supply disturbance say, Libyan supply is cut or Russian port. infrastructure is droned by Ukraine, (then) rates could. definitely spiral out of control again, towards $100/bbl.

Earlier this month, a Ukrainian drone struck Russia's. third-largest oil refinery. According to calculations,. around 14% of Russia's refining capability has actually been shut down by. drone attacks with the war in Ukraine now in its third year.