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Red Sea, Russian refinery attacks tighten up Asia naphtha products

Costs of naphtha, a secret petrochemical feedstock, have actually jumped in Asia as drone attacks on Russian refineries and the Red Sea shipping crisis have disrupted European shipments, trade sources and analysts stated.

The Asian spot naphtha price << NAF-1H-TYO > increased to $701 per metric lot on Friday after hitting a 10-month high of $747 in late January, well above last June's low around $500, as traders face fallout from the dual conflicts.

Damage in recent weeks to Russian refineries and a secret export terminal at Ust-Luga, as well as attacks on Red Sea shipping that have led a growing variety of vessels to divert around Africa, follows last year's rejig of worldwide energy shipping in the wake of Western sanctions on Russia.

That is increasing expenses for Asian importers such as South Korean petrochemical producers, which were already running plants at lower rates to manage weak margins triggered by oversupply and slower plastics demand development, trade sources stated, a squeeze anticipated to last through March.

There will be a lot of timely tightness if failure at the Russian plants is lengthened, it intensifies to the (Red Sea). freight diversions, with currently longer trips, stated Armaan. Ashraf, global head of gas liquids at consultancy FGE.

Russia exports about 400,000 barrels daily (bpd) of. naphtha, stated Kpler expert Viktor Katona, with significant. volumes from Ust-Luga predestined for China, Singapore and Taiwan.

Ought to Ust-Luga repairs take longer than expected, a third. of those flows might not be readily available in the immediate future,. Katona said.

Russia's Tuapse refinery, meanwhile, might be offline for. all of February, depriving the market of 40,000-50,000 bpd of. naphtha, FGE analysts composed on Feb. 5.

Asia, a net importer of naphtha, depends on western providers. including Russia for about 2 million heaps monthly, equivalent to. 600,000 barrels daily.

The Middle East is Asia's top naphtha provider.

ALLEVIATING ON HORIZON

About 650,000 lots of Asia-bound naphtha from the West, or. 40% of supply headed to the region, has actually been diverted from the. Red Sea around the Cape of Excellent Hope since late January, including. 15-20 days to the trip, LSEG data revealed.

At least 2 such diverted freights will reach Asia by the. end of March, alleviating short-term supply tightness, an official at. an Asia-based naphtha importer stated, declining to be named as he. is not authorised to speak with the media.

2 refiners that went into upkeep early. this year, Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura and QatarEnergy's Ras. Laffan, are likely to begin exporting naphtha in late March,. even more improving supply to Asia, traders said.

Likewise, Kuwait's Al Zour has actually increase production and its. February naphtha exports to Asia are most likely to increase to about. 640,000 loads from 441,000 tons in February 2023, LSEG data. showed.

At $17 per ton, Russian naphtha was around $5 per load. cheaper than Middle Eastern naphtha as of the first week of. February, a Singapore-based trader stated, a discount rate that implies. lots of Asian purchasers prefer Russian supply.

The gap, when as broad as $50, has narrowed greatly after Red. Sea war threat premiums increased freight costs, traders said.

Another Singapore trader said that the market has actually pinned. hope on quick revival of Russian export terminals to reduce. temporary tightness in naphtha products.

U.S. naphtha products might also ease the crunch, experts. said, with over 250,000 loads from the U.S. Gulf and Peru. expected to reach Asia in February, compared with 132,000 lots. last February, LSEG information showed.