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United States oil and gas output was seriously struck by winter storm: Kemp

U.S. oil production dropped sharply at the start of the year as remarkably winter for 10 days in the middle of January triggered extensive freeze offs at oil wells.

Nationwide crude and condensates output was down by almost 24 million barrels or 0.8 million barrels each day (b/d) in January 2024 compared with December 2023.

The monthly decrease was the largest given that Winter season Storm Uri in February 2021 and before that the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in March and April 2020.

The fall was the ninth largest in over a century considering that records began in 1920 (a total of 1248 observations) according to information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

For 10 days in between Jan. 13 and Jan. 23, centred around Winter Season Storm Heather, temperature levels throughout the Lower 48 states were significantly chillier than average for the time of year.

The winter storm triggered a reasonably big impact on the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico with frozen equipment and teams not able to reach well websites.

Constant with the storm-driven loss of output, there was a. short-lived dip in business unrefined inventories of 13 million to. 17 million barrels between early and late January, practically all. reversed by the middle of February.

Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas production

Many other large regular monthly decreases have actually likewise been associated. with extreme weather condition events, consisting of Typhoon Katrina in. September 2008 and Cyclone Rita in September 2005.

In every previous weather-related disturbance, production has. recovered to pre-event levels within the next one to two. months.

In this instance, it is likely crude and condensates. production will rebound to December levels over the course of. February and March.

But the storm-driven disruption will make it difficult to discern. if output development has slowed even more following the fall in costs. because the middle of 2022.

Production in January 2024 was down by 35,000 b/d compared. with the very same month a year earlier, after growth of 1.1 million. b/d (10%) in December 2023 compared with the exact same month in 2022.

Development slowed a little in the 2nd half of 2023, though. more gradually than expected, but the weather-related impact makes. it difficult to know if the trend continued into the start of. 2024.

Up until now, the persistent increase in U.S. oil production has. annoyed efforts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies to. lower international inventories and increase prices.

Following Winter Storm Heather, it will be at least a couple of. more months before the efficiency of the effort is understood.

U.S. GAS

Gas production also dipped in January as a result of the. severe winter in the Permian Basin and other locations. ( Winter storms have interfered with U.S. natural gas production,. EIA, March 13).

Dry gas output fell by 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) or 3% in. January 2024 compared to December 2023, according to EIA information.

Production had actually still increased by 43 bcf (1%) compared to. the exact same month a year earlier however that was down from growth of. 197 bcf (6%) in December.

Like oil, gas production has been slowing in reaction to the. retreat in costs from a high in August 2022 to a multi-decade. low in genuine terms in February and March 2024.

However the weather-driven disturbance in January is likely to be. reversed in February and March, and makes it impossible to. recognize whether the slowdown continued at the start of 2024.

Regardless of the quick cold wave connected with Winter season. Storm Heather, strong production integrated with a moderate winter. in general to leave a near-record quantity of gas in storage,. pressing prices.

As with oil, the weather disruption implies it will be a number of. more months before it becomes clear if output growth is slowing. enough to assist rebalance the marketplace.

Associated columns:

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- Increasing U.S. oil production irritates OPEC? cuts (February. 1, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.