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European coal-to-gas fuel changing set to continue this year

The fall of European wholesale gas prices to levels from before the Ukraine war and greater use of renewable resource is encouraging more electricity utilities to ditch heavily contaminating coal, further pressing coal out of the power mix.

European gas costs skyrocketed in 2022 and early 2023 in the wake of Russia's intrusion of Ukraine, triggering many energies to switch back to relatively less expensive coal, right when the area was trying to phase it out to meet environment targets.

Now the expenses have shifted back in favour of utilizing gas to produce electricity, enabling the pattern to resume.

European gas prices have fallen by around 15% because the start of this year due to a moderate winter and abundant supply, and are 90% lower than record highs seen in 2022. Less so global coal market prices, with rates for non-Russian hard coal increasing in March after Russian exporter SUEK was put on a U.S. sanctions list.

While EU carbon license costs have receded from record highs of over 100 euros in early 2023, they would require to fall further to 47 euros per metric ton or lower for even high-efficiency coal plants to be able to change low-efficiency gas plants in the first quarter of 2024, which seems out of reach at the minute, Veyt expert Marcus Ferdinand said.

Criteria EU carbon prices currently trade at around 61 euros per ton.

There has actually been quite a lot of coal-to-gas switching in recent months. We saw clear proof of a big shift in coal-to-gas switching in 2023, which has continued into 2024, stated Fabian Skarboe Roenningen, vice president of renewables and power at consultancy Rystad Energy.

Roenningen said he expected more coal-to-gas changing this year in nations that have both coal and gas capacity, such as Germany, Poland and the Netherlands, as well as countries with a. lot of coal production, but likewise transmission capacity to import. gas, such as the Czech Republic, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria.

COAL BURN

Numerous European countries have actually currently either phased out coal. totally or have actually limited scope for massive coal-to-gas. changing, consisting of France, Spain, Italy and Britain.

The two major coal-burning nations in the area - Germany. and Poland - have actually seen declines in the share of coal in power. generation over the past year, continuing a trend from 2021 that. was interfered with in 2022.

While coal remains Poland's primary fuel in power generation,. January and February brought a strong shift in favour of gas and. renewables, European and polish power grid operator data showed.

Gas power generation in Poland was up 32% year-on-year in. the first two months of 2024, while tough coal and lignite usage. fell 15% and 10% respectively over that duration, according to. price quotes by Online forum Energii.

In Germany, the operating margins of both coal- and. gas-fired power plants are deeply negative, leaving them. operating mainly in peak hours when rates are greater, ICIS. expert Stefan Konstantinov stated.

A repeat of disturbance to hydro and nuclear plants which. Europe experienced in 2022 since of low river levels and. interruptions at French nuclear plants might turn those margins. favorable, however it appears unlikely in the short-term, specifically on. the nuclear side, he included.

In 2023, brown coal's use in the German energy mix in 2023. fell 26.8 TWh to its lowest considering that 1963 at 81.2 terawatt-hours. ( TWh), while tough coal's power production fell 21.4 TWh to 36.8. TWh, its lowest since 1955, Fraunhofer Institute information showed.