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Panama election unlikely to move outlook for First Quantum's copper mine

Prospects are poor for First Quantum Minerals to recuperate its canceled concession for a financially rewarding copper mine after governmental elections in May, a. evaluation of the campaigns' proposals and interviews with. protest leaders reveal.

Demonstrations versus First Quantum's concession requiring. greater ecological warranties and transparency in. negotiations made authorities not just annul its agreement to. operate among the world's biggest and latest copper mines but. restriction all new metal mining allows last year.

Metal traders and financiers are closely seeing the. election outcome to see if a brand-new president might help revive. mining in Panama.

Eight prospects are set to appear on the May 5 ballot, with. surveys showing a tight race. Among the 5 frontrunners, three. have vowed to continue with the plans to close the Cobre Panama. mine, one has pledged a referendum on the matter and another has. not formally suggested his intentions.

The Canadian miner lost nearly half of its market price. after it was stripped of its contract and in March international rating. company Fitch reduced Panama's sovereign bonds to speculative. grade, pointing out financial and governance difficulties worsened by the. mine's closure.

Asked about its expectations for the mine after the vote, a. spokesperson for Very first Quantum stated just: As in any. jurisdiction we run in, we anticipate seeing the. process of democracy deliver the candidate of Panama's choice in. a reasonable, transparent and serene election.

spoke with leaders from 5 different protesters'. groups. Three groups, consisting of the country's primary workers'. union SUNTRACS, said there was no circumstance under which they. would let authorities seal a brand-new partnership with First Quantum.

Individuals currently showed on the streets they do not desire metal. mining, Saul Mendez, head of SUNTRACS, said.

Two groups stated they would support a referendum on the. matter, and forecasted the outcome would protest mining. A. study published by regional newspaper La Prensa in February showed. 90% of Panamanians oppose mining.

All five groups revealed their wonder about towards prospects,. even the ones who have actually outright opposed mining, stating that. political leaders do not tend to satisfy their promises.

If the incoming president opens that mine without. authorization from the entire country, of course we're going back. to the streets and to the sea, Sabino Ayarza, an agent. of the fishing flotilla that stopped First Quantum's operations. by obstructing its primary port, informed .

And we're going with other thoughts. We are no longer going. passively as in the past, however aggressively to close that.

also spoke with six legal experts in Panama who stated. that while regional laws could technically permit Very first Quantum's. potential customers to alter in a matter of months, a referendum or. another type of assessment to ensure public support would be. the only method to accomplish that politically.

First Quantum stated in February it was seeking $20 billion. through worldwide arbitration over Panama's order to close. the mine. The miner has applied for 2 arbitration proceedings,. one under the Canada-Panama Open Market Agreement, and another. linked to the arbitration clause on the canceled contract. The. provision offers proceedings in Miami, according to the. business.

Panama's deputy financing minister informed days after the. statement that the country is prepared to defend its interests. in the legal fight against First Quantum, including the state will. prove to courts it appreciates foreign investment.

Renzo Merino from Moody's sovereign group stated Panama's. economy was currently doing well before the mine began to extract. copper. Panama hasn't lost that. It still has the possible,. he stated, while alerting a healing might be sluggish if financier. issues spread to other sectors and the nation is required to. pay settlement in arbitration.

PRESIDENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

Mining has not been a big campaign problem.

Amongst the 5 frontrunners, Jose Raul Mulino, who is. leading the most recent surveys, does not point out mining in his. government strategy and he has actually not participated in any governmental. debates.

Former President and prospect Martin Torrijos, who has actually been. among the top 3 candidates in lots of surveys, does not discuss. objectives for mining in his government strategy, though he informed. at a campaign occasion that the closure of the mine is a. decision Panamanians already took and he plans to follow.

Romulo Roux swore in his strategy to press ahead with closing. the mine, but did not point out anything about the future of. mining. He was not readily available for an interview but his running. mate, Jose Blandon, told at an occasion that his group has. no strategies to reverse the mining ban.

Present vice president and governmental candidate Jose. Gabriel Carrizo's proposition for the country requires a public. choose Panamanians to decide on the future of mining.

The projects of prospects Mulino, Roux, and Carrizo did. not make them readily available for interview for this story.

Panama's ban on brand-new metal mining concessions pushed up. copper costs due to worries about supply. Any tip of a shift in. Panama might again move markets.

Candidate Ricardo Lombana, who has actually been moving between. 2nd and 4th place in the most recent surveys, went even more in his. federal government plan by proposing to alter the constitution to ban. mining outright.

No financial effect is above the constitutional mandate and. the sovereign will. The whole country understands that the concession. agreement is unlawful which its closure must be consummated,. Lombana informed .