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US refiners' profits to fall from last year however margins remain strong

U.S refiners' very first quarter revenues are expected to fall from recent records, when revenues soared following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however in general will continue to draw support from interruptions in Russia and heavy refinery upkeep.

Looking ahead, revenues are expected to be a portion of the record levels but will rise in the coming months as need choices up, analysts said.

In the very first quarter, margins were reinforced by failures at Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks had actually shut about 14%. of Russia's refining capability since the end of the quarter.

It is going to be another actually strong quarter, said. TD Cowen expert Jason Gabelman. War-related supply interruptions. remain critical for financiers when examining the flow trajectory. for refining margins, he added.

In the U.S., refiners dealt with both planned and unplanned. upkeep, consisting of a failure in February at BP's 435,000. barrels per day refinery in Whiting, Indiana.

Overall U.S. refinery utilization rates fell to 80% throughout. February, compared to approximately 87% in the previous year duration,. according to the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).

A much better demand outlook, in addition to solid item cracks are. likewise expected to drive refinery gains in the first quarter,. according to Matthew Blair, managing director at TPH&C o. In. March, the increase in gas costs enhanced fuel fracture. infect their highest given that August 2023.

Valero Energy, the second-largest U.S. refiner by. capacity, is set to start refiner incomes on Thursday, with. experts forecasting revenues of $3.24 per share, below $8.27. a year earlier, according to data from LSEG.

Shares of Valero are up 28% year-to-date.

Marathon Petroleum, the leading U.S. refiner by volume, is. projection to report per share earnings of $2.39, compared to $6.09. a year ago, according to LSEG price quotes.

Phillips 66, which reports on Friday, is expected to report. earnings per share of $2.17, compared to $4.21 a year ago,. according to LSEG quotes.

Revenues are anticipated to rise in the next 2 quarters as. need picks up headed into the summer season driving season, LSEG data. shows.

Gasoline prices could increase by as much as 15 cents per gallon. due to interruptions in Russia, while unplanned plant interruptions or. other unforeseen supply shocks might press rates over $4 a. gallon for the very first time considering that 2022, according to Patrick De. Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com.

We anticipate some modest enhancement quarter over quarter as. refiners move into the stronger part of the year, stated TD. Cowen's Gabelman.