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China's rising hydro and solar set to cap coal usage in 2024: Kemp

China's electrical energy usage increased by 209 billion kilowatthours, or 10%, in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, when the country was emerging from the exit wave of the coronavirus.

Consumption development was focused in production (+112. billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after. widespread disturbances caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.

However there was also substantial development from services companies. ( +53 billion kWh), domestic users (+41 billion kWh) and. main markets such as farming and mining (+3 billion. kWh), according to the National Energy Administration.

Chartbook: China electrical energy generation

Generation from large-scaled grid-connected power plants. increased by 166 billion kWh (+8%) in the first 3 months of. 2024, according to separate data published by the National. Bureau of Stats.

Most of the extra generation was provided by thermal power. plants (+108 billion kWh) mainly fired by coal with a small. percentage burning gas.

There were smaller contributions from wind farms (+34. billion kWh), grid-connected solar generators (+17 billion kWh). and hydroelectric generators (+7 billion kWh).

Thermal generation increased 7% from the previous year to a. seasonal record of 1,603 billion kWh and accounted for 72% of. all grid-connected output.

By contrast, hydro generation increased by just 3% to 210. billion kWh and was well listed below the seasonal record of 221. billion kWh set in the very first quarter of 2022.

Hydro has actually been depressed by the relentless drought throughout. southern China that began in 2022 and lasted through 2023.

But southern areas have been struck by abnormally early and. heavy rains considering that early in April which must recharge water. resources and increase hydro output from May onwards.

SPRING RAINS

China's rainfall and hydro generation are concentrated in. the southern part of the nation, where spring rains are. followed by heavier precipitation during the damp phase of the. East Asian Monsoon from June to September.

South China represents 36% of the nation's acreage but. 81% of its total water resources, according to data assembled by. the central federal government's Ministry of Water Resources.

Four massive drain basins in the south (covering the. Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast Rivers and Southwest. Rivers) represent more than 80% of the country's hydro. generation.

South China experienced abnormally low rains during the. wet stage of the East Asian Monsoon in 2022 and precipitation. remained second-rate throughout 2023, curtailing river levels. and generation.

In 2024, nevertheless, the spring rains arrived abnormally early. and have actually been heavy, reaching records in some locations, which. should improve hydro generation.

Guangdong province experienced its very first significant flood this. year on April 7, the earliest given that at least 1998, according to. the water ministry.

Rainfall up until now in April in the city of Yibin at the. confluence of the Minutes and Yangtze rivers, and on the border. between Sichuan and Yunnan, the two enormous hydro manufacturers in. the southwest, has actually been the greatest since 2022 and, before that,. 2016.

Like rains, hydro generation follows a pronounced. seasonal pattern - most affordable in the very first quarter before rising. dramatically in the second and third quarters with the spring and. monsoon rains, then tapering in the fourth quarter.

Relatively heavy spring rains should bring a huge boost in. hydro generation during the 2nd quarter this year, which will. continue throughout the 3rd quarter if the monsoon goes back to. typical.

COAL RELIEF

China relied heavily on coal-fired generators during the. winter season of 2023/2024, running existing generators for more hours. and starting up a number of brand-new power plants to meet electrical power. demand.

But record amounts of solar generation were set up in. 2023 and the huge deployment has actually continued in the first three. months of 2024. Solar generation capacity has actually doubled since 2021. and quadrupled considering that 2018.

The mix of quick development in solar with a post-drought. healing in hydro generation need to limit the need for a lot. coal combustion in the second and 3rd quarters of 2024.

Provided the monsoon rains are near-normal, coal-fired. generation will grow more gradually over the rest of the year.

China's underlying growth in electricity usage is so. substantial the federal government has no option however to pursue an. all-of-the-above strategy embracing a mix of coal and. renewables.

The scale of the usage growth means that coal-fired. generation could continue to rise in 2024 and for a few more. years.

But the massive release of renewables is already flexing. the coal consumption curve lower and emissions are likely to. peak before completion of the decade in line with the federal government's. revealed target.

Associated columns:

- China's hydro generators await the rains to come (March. 24, 2024)

- China's renewables rollout signals future peak in coal. ( January 19, 2024)

- China braces for record winter season electrical power need. ( November 24, 2023)

- China's rainfall is in the wrong place for hydropower. ( August 22, 2023)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.