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China can't quit coal by 2040, researchers say, in spite of global climate goals

China's coal intake will fall by just onethird by 2040, according to a report by a. European consultancy released on Tuesday, threatening climate. targets that call for phasing out much of worldwide coal usage by. 2040.

The International Energy Company has said that international coal. power capability has to be eliminated by 2040 to keep average. global temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees. Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

Nevertheless, Norwegian risk evaluation firm DNV said in its. report that its findings suggest China's coal consumption - the. world's most significant - will see a small uptick in the next 2. years and then fall by one-third by 2040, winding up at around. 25% of its peak in 2050.

The findings highlight China's outlook on fossil fuels. In. September, previous environment envoy Xie Zhenhua informed the COP28. environment talks that it would be impractical to totally phase. out fossil fuel energy.

China will continue using coal regardless of an enormous ramp-up in. sustainable generation, which will comprise 88% of China's power. generation mix in 2050, the report predicts.

China approved another 114GW of coal power plants last year,. up 10% from 2022, and the iron and steel sectors are on track to. overtake power as the biggest customers of coal by mid-century. Coal-to-chemicals will also comprise a considerable share of the. staying demand, according to the report.

Decarbonisation of the steel sector through brand-new methods such. as cleaner electrical arc heater technology is lagging in China,. research has revealed.

Gas intake will remain part of the energy mix. with consumption falling just 2% from 2022 levels by 2050, the. report stated.

Still, China is close to meeting its own target of carbon. neutrality by 2060 if it accelerates decarbonisation of some. sectors, particularly making, the report added.

DNV forecasts China's carbon emissions peaking by 2026, well. before the main goal for climate-warming emissions to peak. by 2030, however slower than a projection by the Centre for Research study. on Energy and Clean Air that emissions might go into structural. decrease in 2024.

China's overall energy need, which has been growing at. around 3% annually, is seen decelerating through the rest of. this decade. It will peak in 2030 and then fall another 20% by. 2050, the report discovered.

The world's most significant unrefined importer, China is poised to phase. out oil more rapidly than coal, driven by electrification. The. report sees oil need in China's road sector falling by 94% by. 2050 - a much faster transition than that forecasted by China's oil. majors, which forecast fuel demand halving by 2045.

Total oil usage will halve by 2050 from its 2027 peak,. DNV stated, with 84% of that still being met by imports.

However oil's share of air travel energy demand will fall from. 99.6% in 2022 to 59% in 2050 as the use of options such as. bioenergy and e-fuels takes hold.

A much faster shift to net zero in 2050 where more oil and. gas are replaced by locally produced renewables or nuclear. would substantially improve energy self-reliance, the report stated.