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Europe's gas stocks point to healthy supply next winter season

The European Union will have a lot of gas in stock next winter season and the staying purchasers of Russian pipeline gas in main Europe are dealing with alternative imports in case transit through Ukraine stops from January, experts and business stated.

European gas rates have actually been up to levels seen prior to Russia's February 2022 intrusion of Ukraine this year, touching a. three-year low in February, as moderate weather condition and high renewable. power output curbed gas need and minimized the quantity of gas. that requires to be drawn from storage.

Nevertheless, a deal checked in 2019 between Ukraine's Naftogaz. and Russia's Gazprom enabling Russian gas to flow via Ukraine is. set to end at the end of the year, raising fresh concern. about prospective disturbances to European gas supply.

Ukraine said previously this month it does not prepare to extend. the offer although it's unclear whether it would allow a loophole. where European companies might reserve the transit capacity. themselves preventing a direct offer in between Russia and Ukraine.

With just a couple of days left of Europe's winter gas season,. which ends on March 31, Europe's gas stores are 59% complete, a. record high for the time of year, Gas Facilities Europe data. programs.

Europe is on course for another record high in. start-of-summer inventories and it looks like the continent will. again be on course to fill its storage websites (for next winter). early, said James Waddell, head of European gas and worldwide LNG. at consultancy Energy Aspects.

As part of EU mandates set following Russia's invasion of. Ukraine, Europe's gas storage websites need to be 90% complete by Nov. 1.

Gas kept in storage generally accounts for around a quarter. of Europe's winter gas usage, where it is a significant heating fuel,. and high stock levels should leave Europe well placed to satisfy. supply next winter season and prevent dramatic price shocks.

The most vulnerable countries in the EU are Austria and. Slovakia as they still import a huge piece of their gas from. Russia via Ukraine but even they state they are working on brand-new. sources of supply to restrict the effect if supply is cut.

Gazprom has typically delivered around 40 million cubic metres. ( mcm) of gas a day through Ukraine transit routes in 2024, which if. sustained would relate to an annualised rate of 14 billion cubic. metres, or approximately 3.5% of overall EU demand.

Around half of this gas goes to Austria through pipelines. through Ukraine and then Slovakia. Austria's energy major OMV. stated it has prepared for circumstances in which Russian gas materials. are interrupted.

A business representative informed through e-mail it has. contracted long-lasting melted natural gas (LNG) regasification. capability at eviction terminal in Rotterdam. The Netherlands last. year signed a five-year handle Norway's Equinor and has. access to Europe's area markets.

Slovakia's SPP which also gets Russian gas via Ukraine. stated it continually assesses gas market developments and the. readily available alternatives.

The most likely more loss of Russian gas will cause Europe to. source gas from other places, where LNG will be the most. important source, said Sindre Knutsson, senior vice president,. gas and LNG Markets, Rystad Energy.

U.S. SUPPLY

Europe's supply will be reinforced by cargos of LNG from the. United States which fulfilled practically 14% of EU gas demand last year,. European Commission information revealed, up from less than 4% simply two. years previously.

A substantial space between U.S. and European gas rates, implies. Europe will remain an appealing destination for U.S. gas.

At the moment, U.S. LNG is setting the price in Europe,. said Edoardo Campanella, an energy economist at UniCredit.

Europe's benchmark TTF front-month gas rate is presently. around 4 times greater than the comparable contract in the. U.S.

Europe is also still receiving significant cargos of Russian. LNG, which presently make up around 13-15% of Europe's total gas. imports.

The war in Ukraine and sanctions on other items have led. to concerns about whether Russian LNG imports to Europe should. be blocked, however without unanimity among member states on the. problem Russian freights are anticipated to continue to arrive next. winter.

Presently high gas inventories in Europe and slowly. increasing U.S. LNG exports can not provide open-ended defense. from the supply risks that an EU ban on Russian LNG would. create, said Jake Horslen, senior LNG analyst at Energy. Aspects.

EU nations have actually so far prevented applying sanctions to. imports of Russian gas or LNG, on which countries including. Austria and Hungary are still greatly dependent.

Six expert forecasts collated approximated the. benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract would be in a range of 29-37.5. euros per megawatt hour for the next winter season duration over Q4 2024. and Q1 2025, approximately equivalent to $9.25-$ 12 per million British. thermal systems (mmBtu) in U.S. and Asian gas prices.

This compares to existing prices of around. 27.45 euros/MWh ($ 8.71/ mmBtu).

Energy Aspect's Waddell nevertheless said an end to the Ukraine. flows might include around 10 euros/MWh to gas prices this winter.