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Global freight velocity will lift fuel prices: Kemp

Worldwide trade flows have showed indications of speeding up at the start of 2024, as the significant industrial economies began to pull out of the slump that started in late 2022, which must enhance need for transport fuels such as diesel.

Short-term activity indications have been misshaped by unusual weather patterns across North America and Europe, with a remarkably moderate December followed by more normal temperatures in January.

On balance, nevertheless, the majority of indications indicate production and freight activity starting to speed up around the turn of the year, in some cases quite significantly, despite reasonably high interest rates.

Seasonally-adjusted world trade volumes struck a 10-month high in January 2024, according to data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Volumes in January had increased compared to the prior year for the first time since March 2023 and before that October 2022 ( World trade screen, CPB, March 25, 2024).

Seasonally-adjusted global industrial production rose in December before easing back in January, which was most likely to have been brought on by the weather condition and timing of holidays.

But for the 3 months from November to January, output had risen by 1.7% compared with a year previously, the fastest increase because October 2022.

A COMBINED PICTURE

London's Heathrow airport reported the busiest start to the year for air cargo considering that before the coronavirus pandemic.

Air cargo handled in the first 2 months of the year was the highest because 2019 and up by 21% compared with in 2015.

Singapore's massive maritime terminal likewise reported handling a record volume of shipping containers at the start of 2024.

Total container freight for Singapore was up by 18% in January and February compared with a year earlier, the fastest development considering that 2018 and before that 2010.

South Korea's KOSPI-100 equity index, which tends to track global trade, offered its heavy exposure to exporting companies, has been increasing rapidly.

Chartbook: Global freight cycle

In the United States, container freight managed by the 9 biggest ports was up by practically 7% in January compared to a. year ago.

Major U.S. railroads hauled nearly 5% more multi-modal. containers in January from a year earlier, the fastest growth. because 2021 and before that 2016.

Other indicators, such as freight managed through Narita. airport in Japan and truck loads on U.S. highways, paint a more. blended photo.

Even there, however, freight motions were flat-lining. after constant declines in 2023 and late 2022, indicating a. trough forming.

AFTER THE TROUGH

Rocket and drone attacks on container shipping in the Red. Sea and Gulf of Aden have re-directed trade between Asia and. Europe-North America on the longer and more costly path. round the Cape of Excellent Hope.

The disturbance of container streams is likely to distort. freight stats for February and March, making it more difficult to. validate any change in the trend.

However the total photo is that freight movements have. started to rise even before the U.S. Federal Reserve and other. major central banks cut rate of interest.

If the major central banks cut rates this year, as. policymakers have suggested, to jump start costs on real estate. and pricey resilient products, the rise in freight will. speed up.

Many middle petroleum distillates (including diesel, gas oil. and a percentage of jet fuel) are utilized in freight transportation,. manufacturing and building.

Renewed development in industrial activity will therefore improve. distillate consumption and most likely lift fuel costs and refinery. margins, especially provided stocks are already listed below the. long-term average.

Moreover, middle extracts are the biggest group of. petroleum products, representing 29% of world oil usage,. rising to 35% if jet fuel is included.

Heavy fuel oils account for another 7% of international. usage, and some of that is utilized in ocean shipping, too. as in onshore power generation and commercial heaters.

Higher freight volumes will for that reason rapidly translate into. faster development in intake, likely lifting costs for crude. oil along with middle and heavy refined fuels.

The apparent stabilisation of production and freight, as. well as the fragile balance in the fuel market, are amongst. elements making central banks mindful about the timing and scale. of rate cuts.

The most likely circumstance is for modest rate cuts, a modest. velocity in manufacturing and freight, and moderately higher. oil and fuel rates over the rest of 2024.

Related columns:

- Oil traders expect stocks to fall significantly after OPEC. extends cuts (March 21, 2024)

- U.S. makers struggle to grow once again without interest. rate cuts (March 5, 2024)

- Relentless U.S. services inflation threatens soft landing. ( February 14, 2024)

- Diesel costs primed to increase sharply in 2024 (February 6,. 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.