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China iron ore imports likely at peak, demand composition to move: Russell

China's demand for imported iron ore has probably peaked, however the structure of future imports are most likely to shift as the world's. biggest steel manufacturer seeks to decarbonise.

China, which buys about 75% of all seaborne iron ore,. imported 1.18 billion metric lots of the crucial steel raw material. in 2023, a record high, according to custom-mades information.

But since 2019, iron ore imports have been locked in a. relatively narrow variety in between 1.07 billion and the 2023 peak.

The agreement of views at last week's Iron Ore Forum in. Singapore, which combined miners, traders and steel. producers, was that China's demand will remain relatively flat. around current levels.

This view is based upon 2 large cautions, namely that Beijing. continues with its casual policy of topping yearly steel. production around 1 billion lots, and that China's domestic iron. ore output remains steady on a contained iron basis, with any. boost in mined volumes being offset by declining grades.

Presuming those two conditions are certainly kept, it's. hard to make a case that China's need for imported iron ore. will do anything besides stagnate, albeit at an extremely high. level.

The concern then ends up being how will the market characteristics. shift, as for the last two decades iron ore has actually been driven. largely by the ruthless growth of China, which saw imports. rise six-fold between 2004 and 2024.

The first thing to note is that while China will stay the. biggest purchaser of seaborne iron ore, its supremacy will slip. somewhat as other steel manufacturers emerge in Asia, especially in. India and Southeast Asia.

India is the fifth-biggest iron ore exporter, however as its. domestic market broadens it is likely to export less, and may. even turn to being a net importer in the 2030s.

Nations such as Vietnam and Thailand are likewise expected to. increase steel production over the coming years, and will mainly. rely on imported iron ore.

However, the need chauffeurs for iron ore are deteriorating,. making it most likely that supply will be the crucial rate. factor over the coming decade.

DECARBONISATION

Within that supply image there are likely to be numerous. factors of increasing significance, namely what kind of iron ore is. likely to be most searched for in coming years.

Steel production represent about 8% of international carbon. emissions, and about 16% of China's overall emissions, making. efforts to decarbonise the industry important to the net-zero goals. put forward by a lot of countries and companies.

The low-hanging fruit for steel makers is to use better. quality iron ore while doing so, as this increases the. efficiency of furnaces and also restricts the requirement for sintering,. which is the process of using heat to agglomerate iron ore fines. for usage in a standard oxygen furnace (BOF).

Chinese steelmakers at last week's occasion in Singapore were. eager to reveal their commitment to reducing their carbon. strength, while still utilizing much of their existing innovation.

This makes sense for them as much of the steel mills'. capital equipment is relatively new and has a long lifespan. ahead.

One way the mills see to minimize carbon emissions is to utilize. higher-grade agglomerates such as pellets and hot briquetted. iron (HBI).

It's possible to update iron ore fines, even lower grade. material, into pellets and HBI, and it's furthermore possible to. do this using a green energy source such as hydrogen, or a less. polluting than coal fuel, such as natural gas.

Significant iron ore miners are currently taking actions, with. Brazil's Vale advancing strategies to develop hubs in the. Middle East to produce HBI using gas.

There are also research studies underway to utilize green hydrogen to. produce HBI in Western Australia, where top exporters Rio Tinto. , BHP Group and Fortescue Metals Group. have mines and port centers.

The most likely concern is whether the expense of making higher-grade. product can be recovered through more effective steel. production, or whether some form of carbon taxes is required to. make the process viable.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .