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EVs could overtake petrol cars and trucks in Norway by end-2024

The number of battery electric automobiles (BEVs) on Norway's roadways is on track to surpass gas automobiles by the end of this year or in early 2025, in a first for any country, according to ' and experts' estimations.

The shift has actually been driven by generous rewards, afforded in part thanks to Norway's big oil and gas wealth.

Still, analysts believe it will take a couple of more years for BEVs to go beyond the variety of diesel cars in Norway.

The Nordic nation of 5.5 million individuals aims to become the first nation to end the sale of new gas and diesel vehicles - by 2025. Nine out of ten new cars sold at the start of this year have been BEVs.

If more countries follow Norway's lead, need for oil worldwide could peak earlier than envisaged. The International Energy Company sees that peak before 2030, with automobiles and vans accounting for more than 25% of oil need.

However, Norway's transition has not come cheap, with the nation excusing BEVs from taxes troubled automobiles with internal combustion engines and investing in public BEV battery chargers.

BEVs accounted for 24.3% of Norway's 2.9 million cars as of March 15, versus 26.9% for gas vehicles, according to information from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration seen .

That equated to a lead of almost 76,000 for fuel cars and trucks - well listed below the 104,590 new BEVs offered in Norway in 2015.

If that (trend) is continued for the next 12 months and given that sales of pure-petrol cars and trucks are negligible now, this time next year there will be more BEVs on the road than pure-petrol automobiles, and most likely before completion of this year, Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at climate modification think-thank CICERO, said.

With almost 370,000 more diesel cars on Norway's roads than BEVs, it will likely take three to 4 years for BEVs to overtake diesel lorries too, Andrew added.

Ingvild Kilen Roerholt, head of transportation research at Oslo-based think-tank No, likewise saw the variety of BEVs moving ahead of fuel vehicles in Norway this year, despite a current downturn in sales.

Sales of new BEVs fell by about a quarter last year in Norway, as brand-new cars and truck sales normally decreased in the middle of rising interest rates and as the federal government cut some tax incentives.

Still, BEVs' share of total sales struck a record 92.1% in January, according to the Norwegian Roadway Federation (OFV).

In March, that share was 89.3%, while new cars and truck sales were down 49.7% year-on-year, the current OFV data reveal.

Last year, the centre-left federal government got rid of a worth added tax exemption on BEVs costing more than 500,000 Norwegian crowns ($ 46,700), making designs such as the Tesla X and Audi e-tron more pricey.

Still, the remaining tax exemptions on BEVs cost the state 43 billion crowns in 2023, up from 39.4 billion crowns in 2022, budget documents show.

Despite the current dip in sales, Roerholt stated she was rather sure brand-new BEV sales in Norway would top 76,000 this year.

She also forecasted the variety of BEVs could exceed fuel and diesel automobiles combined in Norway by 2029.

For that to occur, we need to reach the objective that 100% of new cars and trucks will be zero emissions in 2025, she included.

The rise in popularity of BEVs has led to a decrease in need for fuel and diesel.

Because 2021, sales of diesel and motor gasoline have actually fallen by around 8% at Norwegian gasoline station, according to regular monthly data from Data Norway and computations. That excludes diesel sales at truck fuel stations.

It's still a substantial market for nonrenewable fuel sources. We haven't seen the primary dip yet, Kristin Bremer Nebben, head of fuel sellers' association Drivkraft Norge, told .

Demand for nonrenewable fuel sources has been partially supported by sales of hybrid cars that integrate a battery with an internal combustion engine powered by gas or diesel.

There were almost 340,000 hybrid automobiles on Norwegian roads as of March 15, mostly plug-in hybrids with fuel engines, representing 12% of the overall fleet, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration information shows.

Nevertheless, hybrids have actually been losing market share in recent years as the government has withdrawn rewards.

The Norwegian EV Association anticipates BEVs to account for 95%. of all new cars sales this year.